Forecast Data & Sources
Learn about our forecast engine and the trusted data sources that power NPF's aurora predictions.
Our Forecast Engine
NPF uses a sophisticated algorithm that combines real-time space weather data with location-specific weather conditions to calculate aurora visibility probability. Our forecast engine analyzes multiple factors including:
- KP Index: Geomagnetic activity levels (0-9 scale) indicating aurora strength
- Solar Wind Speed: Velocity of charged particles from the sun
- Bz Component: Direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (negative values favor aurora formation)
- Cloud Cover: Local weather conditions that affect visibility
- Solar Activity: Real-time measurements of solar wind pressure and temperature
By combining these factors, we provide accurate, location-specific forecasts that help you plan the best time to view the northern lights.
Data Sources
Polar Forecast relies on trusted, authoritative sources for real-time space weather and meteorological data:
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA provides real-time geomagnetic data including KP index, solar wind measurements, and interplanetary magnetic field components. This authoritative source ensures accurate space weather monitoring for aurora forecasting.
Visit NOAA SWPCOpenWeatherMap
Global Weather Data API
OpenWeatherMap provides location-specific weather forecasts including cloud cover, temperature, and atmospheric conditions. This data is essential for determining local visibility conditions that affect aurora viewing.
Visit OpenWeatherMapAuroras.live
Real-time Aurora Data & API
Auroras.live provides real-time aurora probability data and advanced space weather metrics. Their API delivers current aurora activity levels and forecast probabilities for various locations.
Visit Auroras.liveCredits & Acknowledgments
Polar Forecast is made possible thanks to the open data and APIs provided by these organizations. We are grateful for their commitment to making space weather and meteorological data accessible to the public.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center - For providing authoritative space weather data and geomagnetic measurements.
OpenWeatherMap - For comprehensive weather forecast data and location-specific meteorological information.
Auroras.live - For real-time aurora probability data and advanced space weather metrics.
All data is updated in real-time to provide the most accurate aurora forecasts possible. Forecast accuracy depends on the reliability and update frequency of our data sources.