Every forecast on PolarForecast is computed by our own PolarEngine, built on real satellite telemetry from space agencies — not proprietary black-box models. Every number can be traced back to a primary source.
PolarEngine is PolarForecast's own forecast engine, and the primary source behind every live number on this site. It ingests the raw feeds below — NOAA's KP index, DSCOVR solar wind telemetry, and cloud cover data — and combines them into the KP index, aurora probability, and location-specific viewing scores you actually see.
NOAA's SWPC operates 24/7 to monitor the Sun and the near-Earth space environment. PolarEngine pulls real-time KP index values, 3-day geomagnetic forecasts, 27-day outlooks, and X-ray flux data directly from SWPC's JSON feeds every 15 minutes.
The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) sits at the L1 Lagrange point — 1.5 million km sunward of Earth — giving us approximately 15–60 minutes of warning before solar wind disturbances arrive. The onboard PLASMAG and MAG instruments measure solar wind speed, density, temperature, and the critical Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
NASA provides long-range solar cycle data and coronal mass ejection (CME) analysis via the Space Weather Research Center. We integrate NASA's solar energetic particle data and SDO imagery links to give context to active space weather events.
ESA's Space Weather Service Network contributes supplementary geomagnetic index data from European ground stations. The ESA Swarm constellation — three satellites in polar orbit — provides real-time magnetic field measurements that complement NOAA's ground-based network.
Cloud cover forecasts are sourced from national meteorological services including the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Met.no), the UK Met Office, and NOAA's GFS model. We overlay cloud probability with geomagnetic activity to calculate a composite aurora viewing score for each location.
OpenWeatherMap provides location-specific current weather conditions and 5-day hourly forecasts for each aurora destination. We use OWM data to display temperature, cloud cover percentage, and wind speed on location pages — helping you plan both aurora chasing and travel logistics in one place.
From satellite measurement to your screen, this is the data pipeline that powers every forecast on PolarForecast.